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Nevada visitor volume on Kalshi
If Travel Nevada reports that Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for calendar year 2026 is above 54 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 49 million? · Above 49 million | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 20,931 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 51 million? · Above 51 million | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 17,802 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 50 million? · Above 50 million | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 15,389 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 52 million? · Above 52 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 8,739 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 47 million? · Above 47 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,465 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 54 million? · Above 54 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,805 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 53 million? · Above 53 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,138 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 48 million? · Above 48 million | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 3,363 | Jun 30, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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