What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.03.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 44% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? on Kalshi

If a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The White House, ABC, MSNBC, New York City Council, The Wall Street Journal, United States Congress, The Information, the Federal Register, CBS, NBC, City of New York, New York City Department of Finance, the Office of Mayor of New York City, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, The New York Times, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

84% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? · Before 2027	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	109,469	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2029? · Before 2029	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	935	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2030? · Before 2030	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	326	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2028? · Before 2028	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	224	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.