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NYC grocery story on Kalshi
If a New York City owned and operated grocery store opens to the public before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox News, official websites and social media accounts of <location>, Time Out, The Information, ABC, Bloomberg News, official websites of the operating entity or parent organization of <location>, CBS, The Washington Post, NBC, Reuters, local newspapers serving the area where <location> is situated, Axios, The Wall Street Journal, local government agencies with jurisdiction over <location>, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, CNN, the Associated Press, The New York Times.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 75¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.88 | 76.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will New York City owned and operated grocery store open to the public? · Before Jan 2028 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 39,120 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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