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Mamdani NYC Savings on Kalshi
If the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings is above $1.4 billion in the FY2028 Executive Budget, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings be above 800000000 in the FY2028 Executive Budget? · Above $800 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 649 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings be above 600000000 in the FY2028 Executive Budget? · Above $600 million | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 572 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings be above 1200000000 in the FY2028 Executive Budget? · Above $1.2 billion | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 208 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings be above 400000000 in the FY2028 Executive Budget? · Above $400 million | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 208 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings be above 1000000000 in the FY2028 Executive Budget? · Above $1 billion | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 34 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings be above 1400000000 in the FY2028 Executive Budget? · Above $1.4 billion | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC OMB-reported FY2027 efficiency savings be above 200000000 in the FY2028 Executive Budget? · Above $200 million | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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