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What hardware will openAI/Jony Ive launch on Kalshi
If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is Watch before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sam Altman, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, the Associated Press, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Earbuds/Headphones | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 70,445 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Clip-on device for clothing | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 33,765 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Phone | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 20,521 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Glasses | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 19,540 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Necklace | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,461 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Watch | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,316 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Ring | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,824 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Head-mounted display | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,804 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Computer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,483 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? · Tablet | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,605 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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