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Men's ODI Cricket Match on Kalshi
If Otago Volts wins the Auckland Aces vs Otago Volts men's professional Ford Trophy cricket match originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 4:30 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPNcricinfo, Cricbuzz, ICC, ESPN, BBC Sport.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India wins · India | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 701,600 | Nov 12, 10:00 UTC |
| New Zealand wins · New Zealand | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 279,963 | Nov 12, 10:00 UTC |
| West Indies A wins · West Indies A | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 563 | Nov 13, 21:30 UTC |
| England Lions wins · England Lions | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 226 | Nov 13, 21:30 UTC |
| Otago Volts wins · Otago Volts | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 05:30 UTC |
| Auckland Aces wins · Auckland Aces | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 05:30 UTC |
| Wellington Firebirds wins · Wellington Firebirds | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 05:30 UTC |
| Central Stags wins · Central Stags | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 05:30 UTC |
| Northern Districts Men wins · Northern Districts Men | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 05:30 UTC |
| Canterbury wins · Canterbury | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 14, 05:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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