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Ohio: Acton vs. Brown margin on Kalshi
If Sherrod Brown's margin in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election minus Amy Acton's margin in the Ohio governor election is between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Ohio Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sherrod Brown's Senate margin minus Amy Acton's governor margin be between 0.01 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Brown by 0-3 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,414 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Amy Acton's governor margin minus Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 0 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Acton by 0-3 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 3,218 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Amy Acton's governor margin minus Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Acton by 9+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,814 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Amy Acton's governor margin minus Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Acton by 6-9 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,865 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown's Senate margin minus Amy Acton's governor margin be between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Brown by 6-9 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,572 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Amy Acton's governor margin minus Sherrod Brown's Senate margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Acton by 3-6 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,549 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown's Senate margin minus Amy Acton's governor margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Brown by 3-6 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 985 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown's Senate margin minus Amy Acton's governor margin be at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Brown by 9+ | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 511 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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