Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Open weights AI market share on Kalshi
If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 14, 2026 is above 72.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 55.1%? · Above 55.1% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4,619 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 54.0%? · Above 54.0% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,482 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 59.6%? · Above 59.6% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,705 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 71.5%? · Above 71.5% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 2,000 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 65.1%? · Above 65.1% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 654 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 73.9%? · Above 73.9% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 569 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 59.9%? · Above 59.9% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 520 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 71.9%? · Above 71.9% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 440 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 66.1%? · Above 66.1% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 410 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 63.0%? · Above 63.0% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 400 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 70.9%? · Above 70.9% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 395 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 56.8%? · Above 56.8% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 297 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 54.7%? · Above 54.7% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 159 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 69.5%? · Above 69.5% | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 105 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 70.8%? · Above 70.8% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 92 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 64.4%? · Above 64.4% | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 21 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 14, 2026 be above 65.9%? · Above 65.9% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 14, 2026 be above 65.1%? · Above 65.1% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 14, 2026 be above 57.6%? · Above 57.6% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 14, 2026 be above 55.3%? · Above 55.3% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 73.8%? · Above 73.8% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 73.2%? · Above 73.2% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 72.1%? · Above 72.1% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 68.8%? · Above 68.8% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 67.4%? · Above 67.4% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 65.3%? · Above 65.3% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 62.1%? · Above 62.1% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 59.2%? · Above 59.2% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 57.0%? · Above 57.0% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 75.6%? · Above 75.6% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 75.0%? · Above 75.0% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 67.4%? · Above 67.4% | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 61.4%? · Above 61.4% | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 59.4%? · Above 59.4% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 68.2%? · Above 68.2% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 12, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 70.4%? · Above 70.4% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 68.0%? · Above 68.0% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 65.7%? · Above 65.7% | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 64.6%? · Above 64.6% | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 62.4%? · Above 62.4% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 11, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.