What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Open weights AI market share on Kalshi

If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 is above 73.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 45 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 52.3%? · Above 52.3%	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,915	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 62.9%? · Above 62.9%	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	11,182	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 67.3%? · Above 67.3%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,195	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 60.5%? · Above 60.5%	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	7,129	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 70.4%? · Above 70.4%	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	5,310	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 53.8%? · Above 53.8%	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,007	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 69.1%? · Above 69.1%	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,822	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 58.5%? · Above 58.5%	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,211	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 54.0%? · Above 54.0%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	2,482	Nov 11, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 55.1%? · Above 55.1%	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	1,619	Nov 11, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 59.6%? · Above 59.6%	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	20%	705	Nov 11, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 73.9%? · Above 73.9%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	569	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 59.9%? · Above 59.9%	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	52%	520	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 9, 2026 be above 64.5%? · Above 64.5%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	496	Nov 10, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 71.9%? · Above 71.9%	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	440	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 66.1%? · Above 66.1%	37¢	37%	1.6¢	—	74%	400	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 70.9%? · Above 70.9%	14¢	14%	0.9¢	—	29%	395	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 56.8%? · Above 56.8%	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	297	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 65.1%? · Above 65.1%	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	250	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 63.0%? · Above 63.0%	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	250	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 54.7%? · Above 54.7%	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	159	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 69.5%? · Above 69.5%	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	105	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 70.8%? · Above 70.8%	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	92	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 64.4%? · Above 64.4%	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	21	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 73.8%? · Above 73.8%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 73.2%? · Above 73.2%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 72.1%? · Above 72.1%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 68.8%? · Above 68.8%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 67.4%? · Above 67.4%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 65.3%? · Above 65.3%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 62.1%? · Above 62.1%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 59.2%? · Above 59.2%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 13, 2026 be above 57.0%? · Above 57.0%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 75.6%? · Above 75.6%	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 75.0%? · Above 75.0%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 67.4%? · Above 67.4%	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	0	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 61.4%? · Above 61.4%	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	0	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 12, 2026 be above 59.4%? · Above 59.4%	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	41%	0	Nov 13, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 11, 2026 be above 68.2%? · Above 68.2%	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	0	Nov 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Nov 10, 2026 be above 71.5%? · Above 71.5%	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	0	Nov 11, 15:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 45 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.