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OpenAI Vercel requests share on Kalshi
If the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs for Nov 12, 2026 is above 21.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 20.1% · Above 20.1% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 753 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 18.3% · Above 18.3% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 359 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 20.4% · Above 20.4% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 130 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 21.9% · Above 21.9% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 116 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 19.7% · Above 19.7% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 49 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 18.4% · Above 18.4% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 36 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 20.1% · Above 20.1% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 30 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 19.2% · Above 19.2% | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 25 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 20.8% · Above 20.8% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 18 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 23.6% · Above 23.6% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 5 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 21.5% · Above 21.5% | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 20.8% · Above 20.8% | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 19.2% · Above 19.2% | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 18.9% · Above 18.9% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 18.1% · Above 18.1% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 17.6% · Above 17.6% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 16.6% · Above 16.6% | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 22.8% · Above 22.8% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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