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OpenAI Vercel spend share on Kalshi
If the OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs for Nov 12, 2026 is above 18.9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs.
Market says (typical open contract)
64%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
72% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 64¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.26 | 65.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 14.0% · Above 14.0% | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 252 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 14.5% · Above 14.5% | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 141 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 19.4% · Above 19.4% | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 68 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 13.3% · Above 13.3% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 29 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 13.8% · Above 13.8% | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 20 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 17.1% · Above 17.1% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 19 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 15.8% · Above 15.8% | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 11 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 18.2% · Above 18.2% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 4 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 16.3% · Above 16.3% | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 4 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 13.0% · Above 13.0% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 2 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 18.9% · Above 18.9% | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 17.0% · Above 17.0% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 16.2% · Above 16.2% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 15.7% · Above 15.7% | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 15.1% · Above 15.1% | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 13.1% · Above 13.1% | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 12.8% · Above 12.8% | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 12.7% · Above 12.7% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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