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Oscar for Best Actor on Kalshi

If Yura Borisov has won Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$3.471.1%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Tom Cruise6¢6%0.4¢—11%251,494Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Matt Damon18¢18%1.0¢—35%196,358Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the Oscars? · John Malkovich42¢42%1.7¢—85%168,644Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Andrew Scott22¢22%1.2¢—45%145,261Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Robert Pattison win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Robert Pattinson2¢2%0.2¢—5%141,094Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Timothée Chalamet4¢4%0.2¢—7%121,413Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Anthony Ippolito win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Anthony Ippolito6¢6%0.4¢—13%103,312Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Jaafar Jackson win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Jaafar Jackson0¢0%0.0¢—1%87,570Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Pedro Pascal win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Pedro Pascal0¢0%0.0¢—1%81,755Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Ryan Gosling2¢2%0.1¢—3%73,607Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Jeremy Strong win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Jeremy Strong0¢0%0.0¢—1%71,013Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Tie win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Tie0¢0%0.0¢—1%55,614Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Brad Pitt win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Brad Pitt0¢0%0.0¢—1%42,894Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Tom Holland win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Tom Holland0¢0%0.0¢—1%26,136Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Sebastian Stan win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Sebastian Stan0¢0%0.0¢—1%25,876Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Adam Driver win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Adam Driver0¢0%0.0¢—1%16,595Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Ethan Hawke0¢0%0.0¢—1%6,482Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Josh O'Connor win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Josh O'Connor0¢0%0.0¢—1%4,253Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Channing Tatum0¢0%0.0¢—1%3,408Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Yura Borisov win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Yura Borisov0¢0%0.0¢—1%2,389Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Keanu Reeves win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Keanu Reeves0¢0%0.0¢—1%2,201Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Jacob Tremblay win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Jacob Tremblay0¢0%0.0¢—1%1,335Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Sacha Baron Cohen win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Sacha Baron Cohen0¢0%0.0¢—1%691Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Charles Melton win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Charles Melton0¢0%0.0¢—1%606Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Hanns Zischler win Best Actor at the Oscars? · Hanns Zischler0¢0%0.0¢—1%345Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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