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Oscar for Best Animated Feature on Kalshi
If Iron Boy has won Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Wildwood | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 26,350 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Toy Story 5 win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Toy Story 5 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 8,391 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tangles win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Tangles | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,268 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ray Gunn win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Ray Gunn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 4,217 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Forgotten Island win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Forgotten Island | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,109 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iron Boy win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Iron Boy | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,434 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hoppers win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Hoppers | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,310 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 627 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 207 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minions & Monsters win Best Animated Feature Film at the Oscars? · Minions & Monsters | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 154 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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