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Oscar for Best Cinematography on Kalshi
If The Black Ball / La Bola Negra has won Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · The Odyssey | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 7,513 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Dune: Part Three | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 3,857 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Project Hail Mary win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Project Hail Mary | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,479 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Black Ball / La Bola Negra win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · The Black Ball / La Bola Negra | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 847 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Digger win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Digger | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 728 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Tie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 600 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Werwulf win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Werwulf | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 154 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 31 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Obsession win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Obsession | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 15 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Whisper Man win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · The Whisper Man | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josephine win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Josephine | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fatherland win Best Cinematography at the Oscars? · Fatherland | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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