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Oscar for Best International Feature Film on Kalshi
If The Man I Love has won Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will La Bola Negra win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · La Bola Negra | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 6,911 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fjord win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Fjord | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,743 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Possible Love win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Possible Love | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,523 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will All of a Sudden win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · All of a Sudden | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,299 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fatherland win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Fatherland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 856 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Minotaur | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 627 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coward win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Coward | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 489 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Spiral win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · The Spiral | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 394 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Feito Pipa win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Feito Pipa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 352 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Everytime win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Everytime | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 352 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 299 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hope win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Hope | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 41 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Man I Love win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · The Man I Love | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 39 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Parallel Tales win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Parallel Tales | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 39 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bitter Christmas win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Bitter Christmas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 39 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Beloved win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · The Beloved | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 39 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sheep in the Box win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars? · Sheep in the Box | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 39 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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