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Oscar nominations for Best Director on Kalshi
If Nathan Fielder has been nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Nathan Fielder | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 21,566 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Martin McDonagh | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 19,382 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Christopher Nolan | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 18,558 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Olivia Wilde | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 18,419 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Denis Villeneuve | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 13,901 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Alejandro González Iñárritu | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 11,532 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Curry Barker | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 10,696 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Steven Spielberg | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 8,720 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Jesse Eisenberg | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 7,065 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Cristian Mungiu | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 5,038 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Phil Lord | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,129 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · David Fincher | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 3,765 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Javier Calvo | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 3,442 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Joel Coen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,936 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Ryusuke Hamaguchi | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 2,888 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Na Hong-jin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,726 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Greta Gerwig | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,454 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Christopher Miller | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2,311 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Danny Boyle | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,194 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Mike Leigh | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,110 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Tony Gilroy | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,789 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Paweł Pawlikowski | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,660 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Beth de Araujo | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 455 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Ben Affleck | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 204 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Andrew Haigh | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 59 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · Janus Metz Pedersen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 28 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations? · James Ashcroft | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 27 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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