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Oscar nominations for Best Documentary Feature Film on Kalshi
If 14th has been nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · You Can See Everything | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 119,948 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · NAZA | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 7,058 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · Once Upon a Time in Harlem | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 3,753 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · One in a Million | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,798 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · Nuisance Bear | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 2,675 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · Musk | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,642 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · Tutu | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 1,739 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · American Doctor | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,489 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · 14th | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1,110 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar nominations? · Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 898 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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