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Oscar nominations for Best Picture on Kalshi
If Wildwood has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 53 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Project Hail Mary | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 185,646 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · The Odyssey | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 175,383 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · You Can See Everything | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 173,597 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Obsession | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 121,938 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Digger | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 94,597 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Wild Horse Nine | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 60,973 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · The Invite | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 57,560 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Disclosure Day | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 50,067 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Fjord | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 48,620 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Club Kid | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 44,162 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · I Play Rocky | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 43,713 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · The Social Reckoning | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 36,394 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · The Black Ball | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 32,968 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Narnia: The Magician's Nephew | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 30,280 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Artificial | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 30,086 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Dune: Part Three | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 28,020 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Avengers: Doomsday | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 26,311 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 22,042 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Michael | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 21,082 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · All of a Sudden | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 20,984 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Ink | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 20,961 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Behemoth | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 20,129 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · The Debut | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 19,159 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Possible Love | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 18,359 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Elsinore | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 18,143 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Paper Tiger | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 18,110 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Josephine | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 17,612 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Being Heumann | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 15,854 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Primetime | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 13,749 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 12,396 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Saturn Return | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10,573 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Werwulf | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 10,217 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Wildwood | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 10,033 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Minotaur | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10,027 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Backrooms | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 9,780 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Sense and Sensibility | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 9,331 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · 1949 / Fatherland | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,024 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Cry to Heaven | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,439 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · The Drama | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,019 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations? · Jack of Spades | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,250 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 53 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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