Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) on Kalshi
If Digger has been nominated for Best Music (Original Score) at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Behemoth! | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 11,538 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Disclosure Day | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 11,120 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 10,831 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Dune: Part Three | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 7,812 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · The Odyssey | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,532 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · The Black Ball | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 5,005 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Project Hail Mary | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 3,690 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Wild Horse Nine | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,336 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · The Mandalorian and Grogu | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 853 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · The Drama | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 846 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Cry to Heaven | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 836 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · The Social Reckoning | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 649 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Whalefall | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 554 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Music (Original Score) Oscar nominations? · Digger | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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