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Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor on Kalshi
If Andrew Garfield has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Robert Pattinson | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 35,844 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · John Goodman | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 14,417 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · John Leguizamo | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 13,034 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Riz Ahmed | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 11,039 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Colman Domingo | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 9,644 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Tom Holland | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,788 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Steve Buscemi | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 7,617 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Edward Norton | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,698 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Sam Rockwell | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 6,438 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Paul Giamatti | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 6,313 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Guy Pearce | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 5,825 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Jeremy Strong | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5,174 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Guitarricadelafuente | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 5,098 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Antonio Banderas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,718 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Himesh Patel | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,445 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Andrew Garfield | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 2,178 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · James Ortiz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,140 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Channing Tatum | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,877 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Michael Fassbender | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,582 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Charles Melton | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,447 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Skyler Gisondo | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,418 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Miles Teller | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,128 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Jesse Plemons | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 966 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Daniel Craig | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 712 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott) | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 586 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Robert DeNiro | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 18 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominations? · Adam Scott | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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