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Oscar for Best Original Screenplay on Kalshi
If Wild Horse Nine has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Wild Horse Nine | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 17,790 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Debut win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Debut | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 7,354 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Obsession win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Obsession | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 4,713 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Digger win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Digger | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,451 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Invite win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Invite | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,152 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fjord win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Fjord | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,166 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Club Kid win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Club Kid | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,870 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Black Ball win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Black Ball | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 440 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 252 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Odyssey | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 241 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elsinore win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Elsinore | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 228 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 76 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fatherland win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Fatherland | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 46 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A Place in Hell win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · A Place in Hell | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 25 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Tie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josephine win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Josephine | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Forgotten Island win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · Forgotten Island | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Drama win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Drama | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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