Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Oslo City Council election winner on Kalshi
If SV wins the 2027 Oslo City Council election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Valgdirektoratet.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
19% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Høyre win the 2027 Oslo City Council election? · Høyre | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Sep 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SV win the 2027 Oslo City Council election? · SV | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Sep 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Rødt win the 2027 Oslo City Council election? · Rødt | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Sep 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will MDG win the 2027 Oslo City Council election? · MDG | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Sep 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will FrP win the 2027 Oslo City Council election? · FrP | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Sep 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ap win the 2027 Oslo City Council election? · Ap | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Sep 13, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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