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Oversight Committee Ranking Member on Kalshi
If Tim Burchett is the first Ranking Member of House Oversight Committee for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brandon Gill be Ranking Member of House Oversight Committee? · Brandon Gill | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1,166 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Burchett be Ranking Member of House Oversight Committee? · Tim Burchett | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Sessions be Ranking Member of House Oversight Committee? · Pete Sessions | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paul Gosar be Ranking Member of House Oversight Committee? · Paul Gosar | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pat Fallon be Ranking Member of House Oversight Committee? · Pat Fallon | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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