Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Palladium Hourly on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for palladium on November 10, 2026 at 6:00 AM EST is above 1046.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Palladium.
Market says (typical open contract)
88%
Median YES price across 49 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 89¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.38 | 89.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the palladium close price be above 1029.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1029.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 41 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1028.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1028.49 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 40 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1030.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1030.99 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 25 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1030.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1030.49 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 25 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1039.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1039.49 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 19 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1038.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1038.99 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 19 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1037.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1037.99 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 18 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1027.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1027.49 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1031.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1031.49 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 16 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1046.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1046.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1046.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1046.49 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1045.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1045.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1045.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1045.49 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1044.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1044.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1022.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1022.99 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1023.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1023.49 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1023.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1023.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1024.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1024.49 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1044.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1044.49 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1043.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1043.99 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1043.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1043.49 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1042.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1042.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1042.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1042.49 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1041.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1041.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1041.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1041.49 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1040.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1040.99 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1040.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1040.49 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1039.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1039.99 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1038.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1038.49 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1037.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1037.49 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1036.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1036.99 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1036.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1036.49 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1035.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1035.99 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1035.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1035.49 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1034.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1034.99 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1034.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1034.49 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1033.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1033.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1033.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1033.49 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1032.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1032.99 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the palladium close price be above 1032.49 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET? · Above $1032.49 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 49 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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