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Pennsylvania manufacturing employment on Kalshi
If BLS reports Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 is above 570,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
74%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
53% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 73¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.95 | 74.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 555,000 jobs? · Above 555,000 jobs | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 101,489 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 560,000 jobs? · Above 560,000 jobs | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 36,697 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 550,000 jobs? · Above 550,000 jobs | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 34,856 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 545,000 jobs? · Above 545,000 jobs | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 26,137 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 565,000 jobs? · Above 565,000 jobs | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 14,238 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Pennsylvania’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 570,000 jobs? · Above 570,000 jobs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,302 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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