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Will Pennsylvania raise its minimum wage? on Kalshi
If a statewide minimum wage increase is enacted in Pennsylvania before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pennsylvania General Assembly, Governor of Pennsylvania.
Market says (typical open contract)
70%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a statewide minimum wage increase become law in Pennsylvania before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,918 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will a statewide minimum wage increase become law in Pennsylvania before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 2,525 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will a statewide minimum wage increase become law in Pennsylvania before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 2,016 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a statewide minimum wage increase become law in Pennsylvania before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029 | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will a statewide minimum wage increase become law in Pennsylvania before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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