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How many pardons will be issued by the President in the year? on Kalshi
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to above 999 persons after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, the Department of Justice, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027? · 50 to 99 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 4,076 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027? · 100 to 499 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,933 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027? · 1000 or more | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,413 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027? · 500 to 999 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,321 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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