Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Parry Sound-Muskoka by-election winner on Kalshi
If the NDP candidate wins the next Parry Sound-Muskoka federal by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Elections Canada.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
71% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 35¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.28 | 36.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the NDP candidate win the next Parry Sound-Muskoka federal by-election? · NDP | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Liberal candidate win the next Parry Sound-Muskoka federal by-election? · Liberal | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Conservative candidate win the next Parry Sound-Muskoka federal by-election? · Conservative | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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