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Which peptides will FDA propose allowing for pharmacy compounding? on Kalshi
If the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announces publication of a proposed rule that would add TB-500 (free base) or TB-500 acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 75¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.88 | 76.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add KPV (free base) or KPV acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · KPV | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,672 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add BPC-157 (free base) or BPC-157 acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · BPC-157 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 974 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add TB-500 (free base) or TB-500 acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · TB-500 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 227 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add MOTS-c (free base) or MOTS-c acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · MOTS-c | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 198 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add Semax (free base) or Semax acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · Semax | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 76 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add Epitalon (free base) or Epitalon acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · Epitalon | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 76 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announce publication of a proposed rule that would add emideltide (free base) or emideltide acetate to the 503A Bulks List before Oct 1, 2027? · Emideltide | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 17 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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