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WHO WILL BE CHARACTER IN JAMES BOND on Kalshi
If Zendaya performs/ is announced as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: San Francisco Unified School District.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 50 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sydney Sweeney perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Sydney Sweeney | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 4,689 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Margaret Qualley | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 4,199 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anya Taylor-Joy perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Anya Taylor-Joy | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 4,022 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barry Keoghan perform as Villain in the next James Bond film? · Barry Keoghan | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,183 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florence Pugh perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Florence Pugh | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,091 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Peter Dinklage perform as Villain in the next James Bond film? · Peter Dinklage | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,035 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daisy Edgar-Jones perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Daisy Edgar-Jones | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 808 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cillian Murphy perform as Villain in the next James Bond film? · Cillian Murphy | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 804 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ana de Armas perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Ana de Armas | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 773 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zendaya perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Zendaya | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 762 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adria Arjona perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Adria Arjona | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 526 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jodie Turner-Smith perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film? · Jodie Turner-Smith | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 450 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jodie Comer perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Jodie Comer | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 445 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emma Corrin perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film? · Emma Corrin | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 441 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alicia Vikander perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Alicia Vikander | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 378 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lily James perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Lily James | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 369 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adam Driver perform as Villain in the next James Bond film? · Adam Driver | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 360 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meg Bellamy perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film? · Meg Bellamy | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 350 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Dance perform as M in the next James Bond film? · Charles Dance | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 335 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Holland perform as Q in the next James Bond film? · Tom Holland | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 302 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Ayoade perform as Q in the next James Bond film? · Richard Ayoade | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 295 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vanessa Kirby perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Vanessa Kirby | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 287 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rosamund Pike perform as Villain in the next James Bond film? · Rosamund Pike | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 280 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cailee Spaeny perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Cailee Spaeny | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 267 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Naomie Harris perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film? · Naomie Harris | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 266 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emma Mackey perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Emma Mackey | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 265 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wyatt Russell perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film? · Wyatt Russell | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 259 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mikey Madison perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Mikey Madison | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 258 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Hoogenakker perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film? · John Hoogenakker | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 257 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hunter Schafer perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film? · Hunter Schafer | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 256 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ralph Fiennes perform as M in the next James Bond film? · Ralph Fiennes | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 240 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Colman perform as M in the next James Bond film? · Olivia Colman | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 227 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Phoebe Dynevor perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film? · Phoebe Dynevor | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 199 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Idris Elba perform as Villain in the next James Bond film? · Idris Elba | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 171 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Scott perform as Q in the next James Bond film? · Andrew Scott | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 155 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film? · Alison Oliver | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 146 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dev Patel perform as Q in the next James Bond film? · Dev Patel | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 133 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ben Whishaw perform as Q in the next James Bond film? · Ben Whishaw | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 126 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Juno Temple perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film? · Juno Temple | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 95 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Idris Elba perform as M in the next James Bond film? · Idris Elba | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 91 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 50 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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