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Senate votes on the American Affordability and Jobs Act on Kalshi
If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 84, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
67% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 67¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.15 | 68.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 56 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 625 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 60 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 452 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 68 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 250 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 64 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 248 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 72 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 200 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 80 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 80 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 84 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 84 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 76 Yea votes in the Senate? · Above 76 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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