Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Pichincha Prefect on Kalshi
If Mishelle Calvache wins the 2026 Pichincha prefect election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Electoral Council of Ecuador.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mishelle Calvache win the 2026 Pichincha prefect election? · Mishelle Calvache | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Juan Zapata win the 2026 Pichincha prefect election? · Juan Zapata | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Giovanna Ubidia win the 2026 Pichincha prefect election? · Giovanna Ubidia | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gema Ormaza win the 2026 Pichincha prefect election? · Gema Ormaza | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Guillermo Churuchumbi win the 2026 Pichincha prefect election? · Guillermo Churuchumbi | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carla Cevallos win the 2026 Pichincha prefect election? · Carla Cevallos | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandro Tonello win the 2026 Pichincha prefect election? · Alexandro Tonello | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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