What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 4¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.34.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 4%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Mamdani population change in NYC on Kalshi

If the population change in New York City is -3% or less between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the United Nations Population Division, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, The Wall Street Journal, BBC News, the World Bank, The Washington Post, relevant national statistical office or census bureau for geography, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

9% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.36	4.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will New York City experience population change between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027? · No change or decrease 0–0.99%	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	23,932	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New York City experience population change between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027? · Increase 0.01-0.99%	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	14,939	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New York City experience population change between 1% and 1.99% during 2025-2027? · Increase 1-1.99%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	11,810	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New York City experience population change between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027? · Decrease 1-1.99%	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	10,375	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New York City experience a population change of 3% or more during 2025-2027? · Increase 3% or more	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	9,792	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New York City experience a population change of -3% or less during 2025-2027? · Decrease 3% or more	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	9,285	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New York City experience population change between 2% and 2.99% during 2025-2027? · Increase 2-2.99%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	6,457	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will New York City experience population change between -2.99% and -2% during 2025-2027? · Decrease 2-2.99%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,086	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.