What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 68¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 70% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 68%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Presidential election winner by district? on Kalshi

If the Republican Party wins the most electoral votes in Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

68%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

63% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
69¢ (now)	1.5¢	$1.09	70.5%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the Republican Party win NE-03 in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win NE-03 in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win NE-02 in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	25%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win NE-02 in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win NE-01 in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win NE-01 in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win ME-02 in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win ME-02 in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win ME-01 in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win ME-01 in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win D.C. in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win D.C. in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.