Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Green Primary winner on Kalshi
If Jorge Zavala wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Green party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Butch Ware be the nominee for the Presidency for the Green party? · Butch Ware | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,325 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jill Stein be the nominee for the Presidency for the Green party? · Jill Stein | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,436 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dashaun "Daví" Davis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Green party? · Dashaun "Daví" Davis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 96 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ajamu Baraka be the nominee for the Presidency for the Green party? · Ajamu Baraka | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 93 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jasmine Sherman be the nominee for the Presidency for the Green party? · Jasmine Sherman | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 68 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jorge Zavala be the nominee for the Presidency for the Green party? · Jorge Zavala | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 63 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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