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2028 primary fields with two candidates on each side on Kalshi
If at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Guardian, ABC, Fox News, South China Morning Post, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, ABC News Australia, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times, BBC.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 200 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Apr 1, 2028? · Before Apr 1, 2028 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Sep 1, 2027? · Before Sep 1, 2027 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Sep 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Dec 1, 2027? · Before Dec 1, 2027 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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