What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 87¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.46.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 88% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 87%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

First listed Republican to announce a 2028 presidential run on Kalshi

If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Guardian, CBC, ABC News Australia, ABC, Fox News, South China Morning Post, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, BBC, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

87%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

26% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
87¢ (now)	0.8¢	$0.46	87.8%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	35%	147	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Sep 1, 2027? · Before Sep 1, 2027	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	56%	0	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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