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Length of Trump's next Press Secretary's tenure on Kalshi
If the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves is at least 730 days before they leave the role or their departure is announced, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the White House, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
74%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 74¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.91 | 75.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 7 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 7 days | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 4,259 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 100 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 100 days | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 379 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 365 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 365 days | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 204 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 180 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 180 days | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 94 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 14 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 14 days | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 30 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 30 days | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 60 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 60 days | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of days Trump's next White House Press Secretary serves be at least 730 before they leave the role or their departure is announced? · At least 730 days | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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