Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Presidential election winner by state? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the most electoral votes in Wyoming in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: US State Governments.
Market says (typical open contract)
54%
Median YES price across 100 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 54¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.61 | 55.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win Texas in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 17,314 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Texas in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,923 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Mississippi in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 91¢ | 91% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 810 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Kansas in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 800 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Ohio in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 583 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Georgia in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 492 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Ohio in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 401 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Maine in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 335 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Mississippi in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 293 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win New Hampshire in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 235 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Minnesota in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 220 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Wisconsin in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 206 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Oregon in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 205 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win New Hampshire in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 205 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Colorado in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 205 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win South Carolina in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win South Carolina in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Montana in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Kansas in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Arizona in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Iowa in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 178 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Maine in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 109 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win New Mexico in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 90 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win North Carolina in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 21 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Pennsylvania in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 11 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Nevada in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 10 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win New Jersey in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 10 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Alaska in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 10 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Colorado in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Wisconsin in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Pennsylvania in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win North Carolina in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Iowa in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Georgia in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Arizona in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Virginia in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win Wyoming in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win Wyoming in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win West Virginia in the 2028 presidential election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win West Virginia in the 2028 presidential election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 100 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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