What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 19¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.83.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 20% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 19%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Putin visits USA on Kalshi

If Vladimir Putin visits the United States of America after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official representatives or offices of <person>, ABC, Fox News, official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CNBC, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, The New York Times, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>, official government sources of <area>.

Market says (typical open contract)

19%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

38% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
19¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.83	20.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Vladimir Putin visit the United States before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	12,032	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Vladimir Putin visit the United States before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	397	Jul 08, 14:00 UTC
Will Vladimir Putin visit the United States before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	68%	36	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.