What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 49¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.78.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 49%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Quantum on Kalshi

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Science, Nature Physics, IEEE Transactions on Quantum Engineering, Physical Review X, Physical Review A, Quantum Science and Technology, Nature, The Wall Street Journal, Science Advances, the National Institute of Standards and Technology official publications, IBM Research peer-reviewed publications, MIT Technology Review, Associated Press, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Reuters, Quantum Computing Report, The New York Times, IonQ peer-reviewed publications, Science Magazine, Quantinuum peer-reviewed publications, Bloomberg News, Physical Review Letters, Google Quantum AI peer-reviewed publications, Nature Communications.

Market says (typical open contract)

49%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

98% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? · Before 2027	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	21,570	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? · Before 2030	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	19,155	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? · Before 2035	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	7,749	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? · Before 2040	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	81%	3,023	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.