Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Quito mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If Wilson Merino wins the 2026 Quito mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Electoral Council of Ecuador.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pabel Muñoz win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · Pabel Muñoz | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 564 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wilson Merino win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · Wilson Merino | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 321 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Linda Romero win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · Linda Romero | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 248 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Harold Burbano win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · Harold Burbano | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 210 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will César Díaz win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · César Díaz | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 130 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carla Larrea win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · Carla Larrea | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 120 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jorge Yunda win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · Jorge Yunda | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 85 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bernardo Jijón win the 2026 Quito mayoral election? · Bernardo Jijón | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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