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R6 Game on Kalshi
If LOS wins the BLAST R6 Major Osaka 2026: Geekay Esports vs. LOS R6 match originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 1:30 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Ubisoft, Gamers World.
Market says (typical open contract)
54%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 54¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.61 | 55.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will M80 win the M80 vs. 100 Thieves R6 match? · M80 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 2,331 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Will DarkZero Esports win the DarkZero Esports vs. Weibo Gaming R6 match? · DarkZero Esports | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,198 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| Will 100 Thieves win the M80 vs. 100 Thieves R6 match? · 100 Thieves | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2,071 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Will LOS win the Geekay Esports vs. LOS R6 match? · LOS | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1,085 | Nov 13, 06:30 UTC |
| Will Geekay Esports win the Geekay Esports vs. LOS R6 match? · Geekay Esports | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 720 | Nov 13, 06:30 UTC |
| Will Weibo Gaming win the DarkZero Esports vs. Weibo Gaming R6 match? · Weibo Gaming | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 669 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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