Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Ferrari KPI on Kalshi
If Ferrari N.V. reports Above 3600 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3300 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027? · Above 3300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,419 | Sep 01, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3400 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027? · Above 3400 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,646 | Sep 01, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3350 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027? · Above 3350 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,379 | Sep 01, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3450 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027? · Above 3450 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,196 | Sep 01, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3500 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027? · Above 3500 | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,154 | Sep 01, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3600 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027? · Above 3600 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 01, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 3200 total number of car shipments in Q1 2027? · Above 3200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 01, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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