Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Ferrari KPI on Kalshi
If Ferrari N.V. reports Above 14200 total car shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13900 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13900 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 7,796 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13500 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13500 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 6,157 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13800 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13800 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,309 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13000 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13000 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,096 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13400 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13400 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1,746 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13700 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13700 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,626 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13600 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13600 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,516 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13100 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13100 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,302 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14100 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 14100 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 955 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13200 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13200 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 418 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 13300 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 13300 | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 152 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14000 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 14000 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 83 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Ferrari N.V. report Above 14200 total car shipments in 2026? · Above 14200 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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