Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Where will it rain daily on Kalshi
If the total precipitation at CLIDJT in West Palm Beach in Nov 10, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Austin on Nov 10, 2026? · Austin | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 44,612 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in San Antonio on Nov 10, 2026? · San Antonio | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 35,123 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in College Station on Nov 10, 2026? · College Station | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 29,814 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Houston on Nov 10, 2026? · Houston | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 23,423 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Dallas on Nov 10, 2026? · Dallas | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 15,707 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in St. Louis on Nov 10, 2026? · St. Louis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,116 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in New Orleans on Nov 10, 2026? · New Orleans | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,503 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Tampa on Nov 10, 2026? · Tampa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,637 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Seattle on Nov 10, 2026? · Seattle | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,412 | Nov 11, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis on Nov 10, 2026? · Minneapolis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,052 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Providence on Nov 10, 2026? · Providence | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,691 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Oklahoma City on Nov 10, 2026? · Oklahoma City | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,471 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in West Palm Beach on Nov 10, 2026? · West Palm Beach | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 4,024 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Miami on Nov 10, 2026? · Miami | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 3,541 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Indianapolis on Nov 10, 2026? · Indianapolis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,636 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Columbus on Nov 10, 2026? · Columbus | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,099 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Chicago on Nov 10, 2026? · Chicago | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,007 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in New York City on Nov 10, 2026? · New York City | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,959 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Boston on Nov 10, 2026? · Boston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,659 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Detroit on Nov 10, 2026? · Detroit | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,618 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Atlanta on Nov 10, 2026? · Atlanta | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,505 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Pittsburgh on Nov 10, 2026? · Pittsburgh | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,498 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Philadelphia on Nov 10, 2026? · Philadelphia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,401 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Newark on Nov 10, 2026? · Newark | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,400 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Denver on Nov 10, 2026? · Denver | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 759 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Milwaukee on Nov 10, 2026? · Milwaukee | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 751 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Los Angeles on Nov 10, 2026? · Los Angeles | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 745 | Nov 11, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Albuquerque on Nov 10, 2026? · Albuquerque | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 380 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Washington DC on Nov 10, 2026? · Washington DC | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 333 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in San Francisco on Nov 10, 2026? · San Francisco | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 313 | Nov 11, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Springfield on Nov 10, 2026? · Springfield | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Las Vegas on Nov 10, 2026? · Las Vegas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 11, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Lexington on Nov 10, 2026? · Lexington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Trenton on Nov 10, 2026? · Trenton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.