Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Napa rainfall totals on Kalshi
If the total precipitation at KAPC in Napa in December 2026 is strictly greater than 8 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
28%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
56% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.52 | 29.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? · Above 20 inches | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 28,161 | Apr 01, 06:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? · Above 15 inches | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 15,750 | Apr 01, 06:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? · Above 10 inches | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 7,342 | Apr 01, 06:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? · Above 25 inches | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 315 | Apr 01, 06:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026? · Above 12 inches | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Dec 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in December 2026? · Above 8 inches | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 13 | Jan 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? · Above 30 inches | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 7 | Apr 01, 06:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in December 2026? · Above 12 inches | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2 | Jan 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in December 2026? · Above 10 inches | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2 | Jan 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in December 2026? · Above 6 inches | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jan 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in December 2026? · Above 4 inches | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jan 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in December 2026? · Above 2 inches | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Jan 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? · Above 35 inches | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Apr 01, 06:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026? · Above 8 inches | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026? · Above 6 inches | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Dec 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026? · Above 4 inches | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Dec 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026? · Above 2 inches | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Dec 01, 07:59 UTC |
| How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026? · Above 10 inches | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 01, 07:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.