Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Where will it rain this weekend? on Kalshi
If the total precipitation at CLIDJT in West Palm Beach on any day within November 14, 2026 through November 15, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
57% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.49 | 30.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in Oklahoma City between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Oklahoma City | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,962 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Los Angeles between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Los Angeles | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,347 | Nov 16, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Dallas between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Dallas | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,051 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Springfield between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Springfield | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,027 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in San Antonio between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · San Antonio | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 728 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Newark between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Newark | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 667 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Providence between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Providence | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 574 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Boston between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Boston | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 559 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in New York City between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · New York City | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 557 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Phoenix between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Phoenix | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 543 | Nov 16, 07:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Houston between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Houston | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 539 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Washington DC between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Washington DC | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 457 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Philadelphia between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Philadelphia | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 431 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Trenton between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Trenton | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 404 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Miami between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Miami | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 381 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in San Francisco between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · San Francisco | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 376 | Nov 16, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Atlanta between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Atlanta | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 346 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Albuquerque between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Albuquerque | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 326 | Nov 16, 07:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Las Vegas between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Las Vegas | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 319 | Nov 16, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Pittsburgh between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Pittsburgh | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 300 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in New Orleans between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · New Orleans | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 292 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Austin between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Austin | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 266 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Tampa between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Tampa | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 223 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Minneapolis between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Minneapolis | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 136 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in College Station between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · College Station | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 135 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Denver between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Denver | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 128 | Nov 16, 07:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Chicago between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Chicago | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 122 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Detroit between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Detroit | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 100 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in West Palm Beach between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · West Palm Beach | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 98 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Indianapolis between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Indianapolis | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 97 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Lexington between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Lexington | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 94 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Columbus between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Columbus | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 84 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Seattle between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Seattle | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 73 | Nov 16, 08:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in Milwaukee between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · Milwaukee | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 18 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
| Will it rain in St. Louis between Nov 14 and Nov 15, 2026? · St. Louis | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 5 | Nov 16, 06:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.