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top 5 good search for people on Kalshi
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is in Top 5 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Google Trends.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Donald Trump | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 129,318 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Erling Haaland be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Erling Haaland | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 20,885 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Bad Bunny | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 20,689 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Savannah Guthrie be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Savannah Guthrie | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 13,996 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Taylor Swift | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 10,934 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lindsay Clancy be the #Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Lindsay Clancy | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 5,327 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Elon Musk | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,204 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Nicolás Maduro | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 4,251 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Zohran Mamdani | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,374 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nick Shirley be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Nick Shirley | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,415 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Altman be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Sam Altman | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,347 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro be the #Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Flávio Bolsonaro | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,058 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fernando Mendoza be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Fernando Mendoza | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 776 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Biden be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Joe Biden | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 623 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Brunson be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Jalen Brunson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 579 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Timothée Chalamet be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Timothée Chalamet | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 575 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alysa Liu be the #Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Alysa Liu | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 358 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the #Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 243 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 193 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vladimir Putin be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Vladimir Putin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 73 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will OG Anunoby be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · OG Anunoby | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 63 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Billie Eilish | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 13 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Kamala Harris | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 9 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.