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WHICH SONG WILL BE IN THE TOP 10 OF THE BILLBOARD HOT 100 HUNDERED FOR THE WEEK OF DATE on Kalshi
If Ya Hit is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Choosin' Texas be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Choosin' Texas | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 55 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will HOUSEWIFE be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · HOUSEWIFE | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 6 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Boston be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Boston | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 5 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Thriller be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Thriller | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will LOVING LIFE AGAIN be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · LOVING LIFE AGAIN | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 2 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ya Hit be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Ya Hit | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will STOP THE WEDDING! be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · STOP THE WEDDING! | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mr. Do Something be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Mr. Do Something | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will All I Want For Christmas Is You be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · All I Want For Christmas Is You | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Last Christmas be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Last Christmas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will stupid song be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · stupid song | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Risk It All be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Risk It All | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Patient Zero be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Patient Zero | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nicole Kidman be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Nicole Kidman | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Midnight Sun be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Midnight Sun | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lies be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Lies | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will JADED be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · JADED | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will I Just Might be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · I Just Might | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will hate that i made you love me be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · hate that i made you love me | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will expectations be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · expectations | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BE HER be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · BE HER | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Been By Now be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Been By Now | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BbY WOW be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · BbY WOW | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Babydoll be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Babydoll | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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