What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.49.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 0% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Number of rate cuts on Kalshi

If the Fed cuts 9 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Reserve.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

0% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? · Exactly 0 cuts	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	3,061,400	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 1 time? · Exactly 1 cut	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,364,425	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 2 times? · Exactly 2 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,041,943	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 3 times? · Exactly 3 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	706,373	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times? · Exactly 4 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	586,040	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 17 times? · Exactly 17 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	524,195	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 5 times? · Exactly 5 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	455,278	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 14 times? · Exactly 14 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	443,598	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 6 times? · Exactly 6 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	435,820	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 7 times? · Exactly 7 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	400,816	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 15 times? · Exactly 15 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	381,058	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 8 times? · Exactly 8 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	308,954	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 9 times? · Exactly 9 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	307,883	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 10 times? · Exactly 10 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	306,548	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 13 times? · Exactly 13 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	294,853	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 12 times? · Exactly 12 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	282,301	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 11 times? · Exactly 11 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	259,823	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 16 times? · Exactly 16 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	242,168	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 20 times? · Exactly 20 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	9,060	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 19 times? · Exactly 19 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	4,550	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Fed cut rates 18 times? · Exactly 18 cuts	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	2,505	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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